梳理文献资料，结合农业、遥感和气象水文产品数据，分析乌兹别克斯坦水资源变化及水资源供给压力。分析表明：自1980年以来，乌兹别克斯坦年平均取水量由59亿m3增至102亿m3，灌溉农业消耗了90%以上的水资源；尽管1992年以来耕地面积总体呈下降态势（200km2/a），且高耗水作物种植比重下降（-3.24%），但受气候变暖的影响（0.31℃/（10a）），单位面积作物需水量持续增加（3.27mm/a），导致总的需水量仍呈增加态势（275亿m3/a）；与此同时，上游来水量减少以及上游国家用水的增加，将进一步加剧区域水资源短缺及供给压力。为应对水资源问题，乌兹别克斯坦需加强水管理，改进灌溉技术，提高用水效率，同时，需寻求完善跨境河流水资源分配与管理的途径。该研究有助于增进对乌兹别克斯坦水资源问题的认识，并为应对该问题提供科学依据，以及为“一带一路”合作发展提供支撑。

The change in water resources and the consequent water resources supply pressure in Uzbekist an is analyzed by literrture reviewing, based on agricultural, remote sensing, and hydro-meteorological reanalysis data. The analysis shows that: since1980, the average annual water withdraw als have increased from 5.9 billion m3 to 10.2 bilion m3 in Uzbekistan and more than 90% of water resources are consumed for irrigation agriculture: despite declines in both areas of cropland(200 km2/a) and the proportion of high water-consuming crops(-3.24%), the water demand per unit area is still increasing(3.27 mm/a) under the influence of a warming climate(0.31℃/10a), the overall water demand is still increasing (275 million m3/a); simultaneously, the decrease of upstream inflow and the further increase in water use in upstream countris will further aggravate the regional water short age and supply pressure. To deal with the problem of water resouroes, Uzbekistan needs to strengthen water management, improve irrigation technology, and improve water use efficiency. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries and to seek ways to improve the allocation and management of water resources of transboundary rivers. The study will help to enhance understanding of the water resource problems in U zbekistan and provide a scientific basis for addressing them, as well as support the development of cooperation in the "Belt and Road"region.

中国科学院战略性先导科技专项资助（XDA20040302）