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[摘要]

以淮河流域王家坝、鲁台子、吴家渡和小柳巷4个水文站年最大洪峰流量序列为研究对象，采用Kendall秩次检验法、Spearman秩次检验法和线性趋势回归检验法、MannKendall检验法、有序聚类、滑动秩和检验法以及小波分析等方法，分析淮河干流典型站点多年洪水系列趋势、突变、周期变化特征。结果表明：该区域的年最大洪峰流量有较大变化，上游的偏差系数总体比下游大，即上游序列离散程度较大，其中，王家坝、鲁台子站点呈现不显著下降趋势，吴家渡、小柳巷站点呈现不显著上升趋势；王家坝站点突变点为1985、1993和2010年，鲁台子站点突变点为1957、2002和2014年，吴家渡站点突变点为1995年，小柳巷站点突变点为1995年；王家坝站主要有3~8 a、[JP]8~14 a、14~22 a和22~32 a这4种尺度的周期，鲁台子站主要有5~13 a和15~32 a两种尺度的周期，吴家渡站主要有5~18a和20~32 a两种尺度的周期，小柳巷站主要有4~7 a、10~15 a和17~25 a这3种尺度的周期。研究结果可为淮河流域防洪规划提供重要依据。

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[Abstract]

The Huaihe River is a seventh major river,located in eastern China.The major floods in 1954,1991,2003,and 2007 had seriously endangered the lives and property of the people in the Huaihe River basin.The Huaihe River basin in Anhui Province had flooded areas exceeding 1 million hm2.The average annual flood disaster area in 61 years was 217,200 hm2,accounting for 5% of the cultivated land area in 2010.To reduce the flood disaster loss,19 Huaihe River control projects were carried out from 1991 to 2007,and 38 major tasks for the Huaihe River control were completed from 2013 to 2017.The flood control and disaster reduction work in the Huaihe River basin has made renowned achievements and produced tremendous results.Floods in the mainstream of the Huaihe River lasted for a long time with large volume,frequent flood disasters occurred in the basin.Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the flood characteristics of the mainstream of the Huaihe River have changed to varying degrees.The analysis of the characteristics of flood changes in the mainstream of the Huaihe River can provide an important basis for the flood control planning and is of great significance. Based on the four hydrological stations (Wangjiaba,Lutaizi,Wujiadu,and Xiaoliuxiang),the annual maximum peak discharge sequence was used to study the objectives using the Kendall ranking test,Spearman ranking test,linear trend regression test,and MannKendall test,sequential cluster,rank-sum test,wavelet analysis to analyze the trend,sudden change and periodic change of the flood series of typical stations on the mainstream of the Huaihe River.The final results are as follows: The annual maximum peak discharge rate of Wangjiaba station is -33.08 m3/(s·a),Kendall ranking test value is 1.31<1.96,Spearman ranking test value is 1.23<1.64,linear trend regression test value is 1.49<1.64;the annual maximum peak discharge rate of Lutaizi station is -5.4 m3/(s·a),the Kendall ranking test value is 0.39<1.96,the Spearman ranking test value is 0.42<1.64,and the linear trend regression test value is 0.25<1.64;the annual maximum peak discharge rate of Wujiadu station is 16.88 m3/(s·a),the Kendall ranking test value is 1.84<1.96,the Spearman ranking test value is 1.66>1.64,and the linear trend regression test value is 1.05<1.64;the annual maximum peak discharge rate of the Xiaoliuxiang station is 22.24 m3/(s·a),the Kendall ranking test value is 0.44<1.96,the Spearman ranking test value is 0.44<1.64,the linear trend regression test value is 0.67<1.64,respectively.There are multiple intersections between the curves of Mann-Kendall statistical values UF and UB of the annual maximum peak discharge sequence at each station.The sequential cluster method and rank-sum test method are used to judge the mutation points.The Morlet wavelet analysis was used to analyze the periodic variation characteristics of the annual maximum peak discharge of the four hydrological stations Wangjiaba,Lutaizi,Wujiadu and Xiaoliuxiang in the Huaihe River basin,and finally the contour maps of the real part of the Morlet wavelet transform coefficients and the Morlet wavelet variance maps were completed. The results show that the annual maximum peak discharge in this area had a relatively large change,and the deviation coefficient of the upstream was generally larger than that of the downstream.The upstream sequence had a greater degree of dispersion.Among them,the Wangjiaba and Lutaizi Stations showed an insignificant downward trend,and Wujiadu and Xiaoliuxiang stations showed an insignificant upward trend.The mutation points at the Wangjiaba site were in 1985,1993 and 2010,the mutation points at the Lutaizi site were in 1957,2002 and 2014.The mutation points at the Wujiadu site were 1995,and the mutation points at the Xiaoliuxiang site were 1995.Wangjiaba Station mainly has 4 scale cycles of 3.8 a,8.14 a,14.22 a and 22.32 a.Lutaizi Station mainly has 2 scale cycles of 5.13 a and 15.32 a;Wujiadu Station mainly has 2 scale cycles of 5.18 a and 20.32 a,while Xiaoliuxiang Station mainly has 4.7 a,10.15 a and the period of the three scales of 17.25 a.

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