位于内陆的和田绿洲，其水资源主要来自上游山区，山地径流的变化将直接影响社会经济活动。基于此，对和田河流域上游1980—2015年的降水、温度、径流的变化趋势以及降水、温度对径流的影响进行分析，构建相应的soil and water assessment tool（SWAT）模型，结合气候模式对未来6种气候变化情景下的径流进行预测。结果表明：1980—2015年和田河流域上游年均气温和年降水的变化率分别为0.31 ℃/10 a和16.5 mm/10 a，均呈显著增加趋势，年径流也呈上升趋势；以2009—2011年为基准期，若和田河上游降水量分别增加12.5%、10%和减少10%，则其径流量将分别增加8.19%、6.45%和减少6.23%；若和田上游流域温度分别增加0.3 ℃、1 ℃和2 ℃，则和田河径流量将分别增加1.96%、7.74%和12.99%；预设的6种情景径流量均呈现增加趋势，其中2021—2030年HADG_RCP8.5情景下径流量最小，为51.25亿m3/a；2031—2040年，BCC_RCP4.5情景下径流量最小，为53.06亿m3/a。所得结果可以为当地水资源调配提供理论支撑。

With the intensification of global climate change,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources was becoming increasingly tense.The water resources of Hotan Oasis located inland mainly came from the upstream mountainous areas,the change of mountain runoff will directly affected social and economic activities.This area was mainly prospered by Hotan River,the change of Hotan River runoff was very important for the stable development of the oasis,and will also had an important impact on the water supply and ecological environment of Tarim River below the basin.Therefore,it was of great practical significance to study the runoff change of Hotan River under changing environment.Based on the analysis of the impact of climate change on the runoff of Hotan River,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool（SWAT） model was used to simulate the runoff in the upper reaches of Hotan River basin,and simulated the runoff in the future scenario.The trend of temperature and precipitation were increased,and the variation rates of annual temperature and precipitation were 0.31 C/10 a and 16.5 mm/10 a,respectively.The runoff was also increased over the period of 1980-2015.The annual runoff of Hotan River generally showed an upward trend from 1980 to 2015.Especially since the beginning of the 21st century,with the increase of temperature,the acceleration of glacier snow melting and the increase of precipitation led to the increase of runoff of Hotan River.In particular,the annual average temperature had increased significantly since 2002 and the average annual precipitation had not increased significantly since 2004,which exacerbated the increasing trend of runoff.The SWAT model was used to simulate the runoff in the upper reaches of Hotan River.The results showed that it has good applicability in the upper reaches of Hotan River.Taking 2009-2011 as the base period,if the precipitation in the upper reaches of Hotan River increased by 12.5%,10% and decreased by 10% respectively,the runoff will increased by 8.19%,6.45% and decreased by 6.23% respectively;If the temperature of Hotan upstream watershed increased by 0.3 ℃,1 ℃ and 2 ℃ respectively,the runoff of Hotan River will increased by 1.96%,7.74% and 12.99% respectively.The runoff was generally predicted to increase in all six scenarios,with the lowest runoff (5.125 billion m3/a) in HADG_RCP 8.5 scenario in 2021-2030 and the lowest runoff (5.306 billion m3/a) in BCC_RCP 4.5 scenario in 2031-2040.The results could provide decision-making basis for water resources allocation and management in Hotan Oasis in the future.