以兼具防洪安全和百姓安居双重功能的黄河下游宽滩区为研究对象，利用变化动态度、转移矩阵、迁移轨 迹图、Logistic 回归模型等方法，分析 1980—2020 年黄河下游宽滩区土地利用时空演变特征及迁移轨迹，探讨影 响土地利用变化的主要因素。结果表明：耕地、水域和建设用地是黄河下游宽滩区的主要土地利用类型，其中建 设用地聚集于连续的、成片的大滩区；1980—2020 年耕地面积呈持续增大趋势，水域呈持续减小趋势，建设用地 基本维持稳定；1990—2000 年是变化最剧烈的时期，主要是耕地面积的大幅增加以及水域面积的大幅减小；2000 年以前主要是水域转化为耕地，2000 年以后耕地（128.71?km 2）与建设用地（129.61?km 2）的相互转化占据主导；有别 于其他区域（流域），影响黄河下游宽滩区土地利用变化的主要因素是河道工程、滩区规模以及政策法规等。未来 需基于滩区自然禀赋和河道整治情况，探索土地分类管理和用途管制制度，推动黄河下游宽滩区土地合理利用与 可持续发展。

The man-land relationship of the floodplain in the Lower Yellow River is very complex, as it has a dual function of flood control and people’s living. Under the current conditions, there are lots of land use contradictions between flood control, ecology, life, and development leading to slower overall economic development and poorer living conditions. A study on the structure and historical evolution of land use is helpful to accurately understand the interaction between human activity and the natural environment and is of great significance to scientifically promoting the ecological protection and high-quality development of the floodplain in the Lower Yellow River. The spatial-temporal change characteristics and trajectory of land use from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed, and main factors affecting land use change were further explored using a change dynamically, transfer matrix, transfer trajectory map, and Logistic regression model. The results showed that cultivated land was the main land use type in the wide floodplain of the Lower Yellow River accounting for more than 60% of the total area followed by water and construction land. The construction land converged on the continuous large floodplain, and most of them kept a certain distance from the main river channel. From 1980 to 2020, the cultivated land area increased continuously, the water area increased and the construction land area remained stable. From 1990 to 2000, there was a drastic change due to the significant increase in cultivated land area and the significant decrease in water area. There were multi-stage and multi-objective transformation relations among different land use types. Before 2000, the transformation from water to cultivated land was the main model, with an area of 385. 43 km2 (73.65% of the total water area in 1980). But after 2000, the mutual transformation of cultivated land and construction land became dominant. There are 128. 71 km2 of cultivated land transformed into construction land, and meanwhile 129.61 km2of construction land transformed into cultivated land. All of the commonly used factors including temperature, precipitation, soil organic matter content, population density, GDP, county distance, road distance, and river distance could not explain the land use change, which indicated the uniqueness and complexity of the wide beach area in the lower Yellow River. It was suggested that river engineering, floodplain area, and management policy were the main influencing factors of land use change. The construction of river regulation engineering was the reason for the water area decreasing, as it could effectively reduce the wandering range of the main channel (the correlation coefficient of engineering density and water area is ?0.89). The large floodplain was more conducive to attracting population aggregation and was an important factor in the spatial distribution of rural residential areas (the correlation coefficient of floodplain area and rural residential area is 0.98). The policies and regulations of river management, wetland protection, and basic farmland protection constrain the expansion of construction land area and the reduction of the cultivated land area leading to the single land use structure of the wide floodplain (mainly cultivated land). In future, it is necessary to explore land classification management and land use control to promote the rational use and sustainable development of land in the wide floodplain of the lower Yellow River on basis of the natural endowment and river regulation.