为客观评估消费环节的真实水量消费和用水效率，在虚拟水分析的基础上研究经济社会消费水量。基于国 家和各省水资源投入产出表，构建虚拟水通量以及综合用水效率评价模型，评估 2007、2012、2017 年我国 31 个省 （自治区、直辖市）虚拟水通量、经济社会消费水量及其综合效率，并对未来经济社会消费水量极值进行预测。结 果表明：国内虚拟水输入区向高收入区域聚集，虚拟水输出区向水资源密集型产品生产地聚集，考虑虚拟水流通 后，各省（自治区、直辖市）综合用水效率具有趋同性特征，人均综合消费水量与经济发展水平呈较好的对数关系， 经济越发达、居民生活水平越高，人均综合消费水量越高；由于国际贸易商品结构变化，2012 年之前我国经济社 会用水量高于经济社会水消费量，之后后者超过前者，预期在 2035—2040 年我国经济社会消费水量将达到 6?907 亿 m 3极值，比经济社会用水量高 427 亿 m 3。经济社会用水量和经济社会消费水量分别反映生产端和消费端用水 规模，随着经济社会生活水平提升以及生产结构和贸易结构的转变，经济社会消费水量超过经济社会用水量规模 将日趋扩大，二者差额主要通过虚拟水解决，需要合理优化商品进出口结构，避免大宗进口引发经济和社会风险。

To objectively evaluate the real water consumption and water efficiency link, the water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption was studied based on virtual water analysis. Based on the national and provincial water resource input-output tables. A virtual water flux and comprehensive water use efficiency evaluation model was built to evaluate the virtual water flux. Water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption and comprehensive water use efficiency of China′s provinces in 2007, 2012, and 2017, and the extreme value of water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption in the future was predicted.The results showed that the domestic virtual water input area converged to high-income areas, and the virtual water output area converged to water resources-intensive product production areas. Considering the virtual water circulation, the comprehensive water use efficiency of each province had the same characteristics, and the per capita comprehensive water consumption had a good logarithmic relationship with the level of economic development. The more developed the economy and the higher the living standard of residents, the higher the per capita comprehensive water consumption. Due to changes in the structure of international trade commodities, China′s economic and social water usage was higher than that of water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption before 2012, and then the latter exceeded the former. It is expected that China′s water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption will reach the extreme value of 6 907 billion cubic meters in 2035-2040, 427 billion cubic meters higher than the water usage of economic and social.Water usage of economic and social and water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption, respectively, reflected the scale of water use at the production end and the consumption end. With the improvement of economic and social living standards and the transformation of trade structure, China′s water consumption accompanying social commodity consumption has exceeded the economic and social water usage, and will still show an increasing trend in the future. The difference between the two was mainly solved through virtual water. It is necessary to reasonably optimize the commodity import and export structure to avoid economic and social risks caused by bulk imports.