在脱钩模型的基础上，运用对数平均迪氏指数（logarithmic?mean?Divisia?index,?LMDI）分解模型和系统动力学 （system?dynamics,?SD）模型，分别研究受水区 2000—2020 年用水量与经济脱钩的驱动因素和 2020—2030 年的变 化趋势。将用水量与经济脱钩状态变化分解为产业用水强度脱钩效应、产业结构脱钩效应和经济发展水平脱钩 效应。研究发现：产业用水强度和产业结构累积脱钩指数始终为负值，分别达到?12.59 和?3.43，是维持脱钩状态 的主要和次要影响因素；而经济发展水平累积脱钩指数始终为正值，累积达到 19.11，是促进受水区用水量与经济 负脱钩的重要影响因素。预计在 2020—2030 年，受水区用水量与经济发展脱钩指数位于 0~1，处于弱脱钩阶段， 且有负脱钩发展趋势，其中产业用水强度的持续下降和产业结构的不断调整对受水区脱钩状态起着持续的稳固 作用，而经济发展的稳步上升显著促进受水区脱钩状态的负向发展。

With the rapid development of the national economy and the continuous urbanization, water demand in social and economic activities has increased sharply. China is a country with a serious shortage of water resources, and the per capita amount of water resources is only 1/4 of the world level. Therefore, some experts pointed out how to solve the water shortage problem that is directly related to eco-environmental security and sustainable economic development. The middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project benefits areas spanning the central and northern regions. These regions have strong economic influence and key areas for eco-environmental protection in China, which also occupy important strategic positions in the national regional development. Therefore, it is of great significance to make a profound study on the driving factors of the relationship between water resource utilization and economic development and predict the evolutionary trend of the future relationship for the sustainable development of ecology and economy in the water-receiving area. The key steps to finding out the driving factors are to reasonably define the state of water resources utilization and economic development and quantitatively investigate the relationship between them.Tapio model of water resources utilization and economic development was constructed by transforming the corresponding variables. The logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI) decomposition method was used to study the decoupling state and effect between water resources utilization and economic development, and a system dynamics(SD) prediction model was established.Tapio model was used to analyze the trend of decoupling state between water resources utilization and economic development in water-receiving areas from 2000 to 2020. The results show that it is in a weak decoupling state. From 2000 to 2020, industrial water intensity and industrial structure are the main and secondary influencing factors to maintain the decoupling state, while the level of economic development is an important factor to promote the negative decoupling state. SD model results indicated that in the next ten years, the water consumption and economic development in the water-receiving area will be in a weak decoupling stage.During the development of the water-receiving area in the middle route, the decoupling state between water resources and the economy is still not optimistic. In order to achieve the goal of coordinated development, the work of water-receiving areas should focus on the guidance of laws and policies, financial support, water-saving innovation, science, and technology transformation, etc., which mainly improves the utilization efficiency of water resources.