以优化京津冀地区工业适水发展为目标，在深化解析工业适水发展概念和内涵的基础上，构建工业适水发 展评价指标体系及评价模型，剖析水资源与工业发展布局的协调程度，探究工业适水发展的时空变化特征及其障 碍因素。结果表明：京津冀地区的复合系统综合评价指数呈现出以京津为核心空间分布格局；水资源系统发展水 平较高且呈波动增长趋势，但增幅小于工业发展系统。2008—2018 年，京津冀地区由濒临不适水逐渐演变为初级 适水发展状态；工业适水发展水平呈现出以京津为核心的“中部高、四周低”的分布特征。京津冀地区工业适水 发展主要受到人均水资源量、工业增加值、工业增加值比重和工业废水排放强度等因素的影响。研究结果可为 优化京津冀地区工业发展布局、促进水资源与工业的协调可持续发展提供参考。

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is one of the core areas of industrial development in China, and the layout of its industrial and economic development does not match the carrying capacity of water resources, and the contradiction between water demand and water endowment needs to be solved urgently. In order to identify the relationship between industrial development and water shortage, the degree of coordination between water resources and industrial development layout in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was analyzed with the goal of optimizing the water-appropriate development layout of industrial economy.Based on the deepening of the connotation of industrial water-appropriate development, an industrial water-appropriate development evaluation index system in terms of water endowment and utilization, industrial structure and economic benefits. Was constructed industrial water-appropriate development evaluation model was established based on entropy weight method and coupled coordination degree model to explore the spatial and temporal change characteristics of industrial water-appropriate development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its obstacle factors.The results showed that: (1) The comprehensive evaluation indexes of the composite system and its subsystems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed a spatial distribution pattern with Beijing-Tianjin as the core, among which the development level of the water resources system was higher and showed a fluctuating growth trend, but the increase was smaller than that of the industrial development system. The spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and the imbalance of regional water use efficiency greatly affected the spatial and temporal distribution of the water resources system evaluation index; the development of Hebei's industrial economy was driven by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei synergistic development. (2) From 2008 to 2018, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region gradually evolved from near-unsuitable water to primary water-suitable development (from 0.475 to 0.690), showing the distribution characteristics of “central gradually driving balanced around” with Beijing-Tianjin as the core. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has mainly experienced the three development states of near-unsuitable water, barely suitable water and primary suitable water; while the prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province have a large gap compared with Beijing and Tianjin. (3) From the analysis of the influencing factors, the type of water-appropriate development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is mainly the type of lagging industrial development. The water-appropriate development of industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was limited by water resources endowment and the level of industrial development between regions. The study results can provide reference for optimizing the industrial development layout in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and promoting the coordinated and sustainable development of water resources and industry.