以内蒙古高原浑善达克沙地内骏马湖水下地形测绘数据为基础，构建湖泊结构特征曲线；基于遥感数据提 取 1991—2021 年骏马湖面积，反演出 30 年来其水位与容积的演化特征；建立其水量平衡方程，定量分析降水、蒸 发和地下水补给量等水量平衡要素的变化趋势及相互作用模式，识别出不同阶段湖泊萎缩的主控因素。计算结 果显示：骏马湖容量由 1991 年的 1?450 万m3波动下降至 2021 年的 380 万m3，年均变化率为?34 万m3/a，降水量、 蒸发量和地下水补给量均呈现减少趋势，年均变化率分别为?10 万、?7 万和?5 万m3/a。2006 年前，湖泊呈微弱的 负均衡状态；2006 年后，地下水补给量显著减少，导致湖泊水量负均衡加剧、萎缩速率加快。结果表明：2006 年前， 气候暖干化是导致湖泊萎缩的主要因素；2006 年至今，流域地下水资源大量开采导致湖泊水量失衡，人类活动成 为湖泊萎缩的主控因子。降低地下水资源开发利用量，提高水资源利用效率，可有效减缓浑善达克沙地湖泊群的 萎缩退化进度。

As an integral part of the terrestrial hydrosphere, lakes play an indispensable role in regional water cycle, water balance and water resources regulation. Due to the different climatic conditions and human activities, the causes of lake shrinkage in different time and space are significantly different. The Hunshandake Sandy Land is located in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia. Due to its unique geographical pattern and climatic characteristics, the predecessors have carried out a lot of research on this area. However, most of the previous studies focused on climate change and ecological stability, and only a small amount of research focused on lake area and water volume. And the studies are mainly concentrated before 2015, and there is a lack of research on the recent Hunshandake in the current new state. In particular, there is a lack of research on the changes of water balance factors based on the water balance model and the quantitative analysis of human activities and climate change on lake evolution. Therefore, it is of great significance to reveal the mechanism of shrinkage and degradation of lakes in Hunshandake Sandy Land of Inner Mongolia Plateau for the protection and restoration of lakes in Hunshandake Sandy Land.Based on Landsat TM / ETM +, the lake area of Junma Lake from 1991 to 2021 was extracted. Combined with DEM data and field elevation point test, the water depth-area-volume curve of Junma Lake was established to calculate the lake water volume. Based on the meteorological data, the water balance model of Junma Lake from 1991 to 2021 was established. The variation characteristics of water balance factors such as precipitation, evaporation and runoff are quantitatively analyzed, the interaction between income items and expenditure items and their impact on lake water volume changes is analyzed, the impact of climate change and human activities on lake water volume changes at different stages is analyzed, and the main control factors of lake water volume changes at different stages are determined. The research results can provide basis and support for regional lake evolution and ecological protection. The results show that the lake water volume decreases from 1450×104m3 in 1991 to 380×104m3 in 2021, with an average annual change rate of ?34×104m3/a. The regional precipitation, evaporation and groundwater recharge all show a decreasing trend, with an average annual change rate of ?10×104m3/a,?7×104m3/a and ?5×104m3/a, respectively. Before 2006, the lake recharge and discharge showed a weak negative equilibrium; after 2006, due to the significant reduction of groundwater recharge, the negative balance of lake water increased and the shrinkage rate accelerated.The results show that: before 2006, climate warming and drying was the main factor leading to lake shrinkage; after 2006, the large-scale exploitation of groundwater resources affected the lake recharge, and human activities became the main controlling factor of lake shrinkage. Rational development and utilization of groundwater resources and improvement of water resources utilization efficiency can alleviate the shrinkage and degradation of lake wetlands in Hunshandake Sandy Land to a certain extent.