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[摘要]
南水北调西线工程是构建我国“四横三纵”水资源配置的重大工程,全部依靠国家投资建设压力较大。贯彻 “两手发力”的要求,利用受水区丰富的风、光、土资源进行“调水+能(牧)、农(土)”综合开发,提出在调水基础 上构建多能互补清洁能源基地、黑山峡生态灌区与内流区光牧一体化基地的综合开发思路,缓解筹融资压力。研 究表明:将调水 80 亿m3方案与风、光、土资源开发结合,可实现清洁能源基地装机规模达 64105 万kW、黑山峡 生态灌区达 33.6 万hm2、光牧一体化基地养殖羊约 500 万只。据此提出西线工程综合开发的两种融资模式:一是 不考虑国家出资,以清洁能源全部利润用于一期工程建设和基本运行;二是按综合开发方案确定的清洁能源基地 建设规模,以电价补贴形式反哺西线工程
[Key word]
[Abstract]
The Western Route Project constitutes a pivotal component within the framework of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project, serving as the main framework and artery of the national water resources allocation pattern with “four horizontal and three vertical”. Its significance resonates profoundly in the preservation of ecological security within the Yellow River basin, the establishment of a national ecological security barrier, the advancement of economic and social development across the northweatern region, solving the problem of imbalanced and insufficient development, and maintaining social stability. After over 70 years of argumentation, the first phase of the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfers Project is currently recommended as the 8 billion m3 combined water transfer scheme. It consists of two independent water transfer routes, the upper and lower lines, both of which are self-flowing water transfer. Specifically, the upper route will transfer 4 billion m3 of water from the mainstream of the Yalong River and the tributaries of the Dadu River to the mainstream of the Yellow River near the mouth of the Jiaqu River. The lower route will transfer the other 4 billion m3 of water from the Shuangjiangkou Reservoir on the Dadu River, which is under construction, to the Tao River. The total length of the first phase of the Western Route Project is 740 km, including a tunnel length of 731 km and the construction of 6 new water source reservoirs. The total static investment of the project is about 257.6 billion yuan, which may be a heavy burden on national investment and construction if it is totally founded by the state. It is worth noting that the water receiving area of the Western Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project highly overlaps with some national strategies regions in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, including the development of the Western region, the Belt and Road, ecological security, food security, energy security, and “double carbon”. This territory is inherently endowed with a profusion of natural resources, including wind, solar, and expansive tracts of land, which can be synergistically harnessed in conjunction with the Western Route Project for comprehensive development to increase project financial income and expand financing channels. In light of these considerations, in alignment with the “two-pronged approach” mandate, a holistic development model denoted as “Water Transfer + Energy (Livestock Farming) Agriculture (Land)” is posited. This model serves as a strategic mechanism to mitigate the financial strains associated with the Western Route Project, capitalizing on the abundant reservoir of land resources, wind energy potential, and solar energy availability within the hinterlands of the Western Route Project’s service area. This comprehensive development includes building a clean energy base with multi-energy forms, developing the Heishan Gorge ecological irrigation area, and building a comprehensive development base of light energy and animal husbandry in the inland river area. In addition, two financing modes were proposed: (1) All revenues generated from clean energy will be exclusively allocated to the construction of the first phase of the Western Route Project and basic operation without considering state funding; (2) The construction of clean energy bases is determined in accordance with the comprehensive development plan scale, and feedback the Western Route Project in the form of electricity price subsidies. Results showed that, under the integrated development with 8 billion m3 water transfer amount of the Western Route Project, it can build a multi-energy complementary clean energy base with an installed capacity of 641.05 million kW, develop 0.336 million hm2 of ecological irrigation area in Heishan Gorge. Furthermore, it supports the establishment of an integrated platform for harnessing light energy and animal husbandry in the inland river basin to breed 5 million sheep. Several financing models were proposed. The total financial revenue of the comprehensive development plan for the first phase of the Western Route Project is about 357.6 billion yuan, and the overall pre-tax financial internal rate of return before financing is 6.5% to 7.3%.
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