为进一步推动南水北调后续工程高质量发展和华北地区地下水超采治理，对南水北调京津冀豫受水区 1999—2020 年供用水变化态势进行全面分析，从国家需求、经济社会发展对用水需求的驱动模式、水资源条件以 及供需矛盾变化等层面分析水资源供需新形势，开展受水区 2035 年供需初步分析；提出解决供需缺口的对策建 议。研究表明：京津冀豫四省市用水量呈现振荡上涨，虽然上升过程有起伏、上升速率逐渐减缓、用水量距顶层 设计预测值也有一定差距，但上升发展的态势没有变，面向未来用水需求，人口由总量驱动转为区域驱动，经济由 高速驱动转为高效驱动，用水效率逆驱动将进一步发挥重要作用，用水需求仍将有一定增长，而当地水资源衰减 导致对用水需求支撑能力有所减弱，水资源刚性缺口仍然存在，城市供需缺口尚未完全解决，农村农业区供需矛 盾较为突出；考虑中线一期工程达效及引江补汉工程实施后，初步分析 2035 年仍缺水量约 44 亿～49?亿 m3，建议 充分发挥中线优势，由中线后续工程予以解决。

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Henan region is the water-receiving area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project. Under the new situation, the water supply and consumption issues in the four provinces and cities are directly related to the follow-up project demonstration of the Middle Route of South-to North Water Transfers Project, and even related to the construction of the national water network. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze and judge the current and future situation of water supply and consumption in order to further promote the high-quality development of the follow-up project of the South-to-North Water Transfers Projecct.There are many factors affecting water resource supply and demand analysis, including socio-economic development, water use efficiency, and water resource conditions and so on. On the basis of formulating the planning level year, the trend of economic and social development and the future water use efficiency are analyzed and judged, the quota method is used to predict the water demand, the available water supply is analyzed and simulated when each water supply project meets the operational requirements, the supply and demand analysis, the gap between supply and demand and is explored the decision-making strategies are put forward. The analysis shows that in the face of future water demand, the population will shift from overall driving to regional driving, and the economy will shift from high-speed driving to high-efficiency driving. The reverse driving of water use efficiency will further play an important role, while the supporting role of local water resources will weaken, and there is still a significant shortage of water resources. The main supply-demand contradiction will shift to rural agricultural areas. Considering the expansion of water supply scope and the increase in agricultural water supply tasks in the Middle Route Project, the first phase of the Middle Route Project has achieved results, and after the implementation of the Yangtze River and Han River Diversion Project, there will still be a water shortage of about 4.4-4.9 billion m3 in 2035. It is recommended that the follow-up Middle Route Project should expand energy and increase water sources to solve this problem. The problems such as agricultural water shortage, groundwater overexploitation, and urban water shortage will be included in the overall plan of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, and the advantages of the Middle Route Project will be fully utilized to systematically solve the water security problems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Henan region.The water supply and demand situation of the four provinces and cities, as well as the future water supply and demand issues under the new situation is analyzed, and the solutions are put forward to address the water supply shortage, which has certain reference value for demonstrating the scale and promoting the high-quality development of the follow-up South-to-North Water Transfers Project.