为科学研判山西省 7 条河的流域水生态承载现状和存在问题，有效提升河流水生态承载力，构建 7 条河的 流域水生态承载力评估指标体系，应用模糊综合评价法定级评估 7 条河的流域水生态承载力，使用差分自回归移 动平均（autoregressive?integrated?moving?average,?ARIMA）模型和长短期记忆（long?short-term?memory,?LSTM）模型对 比预测水生态承载力变化趋势。结果表明，2011—2021 年，7 条河的流域水生态承载力总体为一般超载等级。其 中，汾河流域水生态承载力呈基本承载，其他流域为一般超载，水环境指数和水资源指数对 7 条河的流域水生态 承载力影响较大。ARIMA-LSTM 模型预测表明：2022—2031 年汾河水生态承载力变化呈上升趋势，涑水河、沁 （丹）河流域水生态承载力未来趋势存在较大不确定性，其他流域水生态承载力呈不同幅度波动趋势；2031 年左右， 各流域水生态承载力将得到提升。建议通过提升流域水资源利用率以及加强 7 条河的流域绿色生态走廊建设来 推进流域水生态保护工作。

The objective of this study is to establish a unified evaluation system for water ecosystem carrying capacity in multiple river basins, which can scientifically analyze, compare, and predict the changes in water ecosystem carrying capacity. This will further enable the proposal of targeted measures for water ecosystem restoration.Principal component analysis (PCA) and entropy weighting method were used to establish the evaluation indicator system. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was introduced to classify the water ecosystem carrying capacity assessment levels. The ARIMA model was utilized to predict the changes in water ecosystem carrying capacity in the seven rivers basins.From 2011 to 2021, the water ecosystem carrying capacity in the seven rivers basins was generally at an overloaded level. Among them, the Fen River basin showed a significant upward trend, reaching the level of basic sustainability. The remaining basins exhibited insignificant changes in water ecosystem carrying capacity and were classified as generally overloaded. Through the analysis of the contribution rates of evaluation indicators, it was found that the water environmental index and water resources index had a significant impact on the water ecosystem carrying capacity in the selected basins. The ARIMA prediction results indicate that from 2022 to 2031, the water ecosystem carrying capacity of the Fen River, Shushui River, and Qin (Dan) River will continue to increase, leading to an overall improvement in the carrying capacity of each basin.The unified evaluation system in multiple river basins provides a scientific assessment of the water ecosystem carrying capacity of the seven rivers basins in Shanxi Province. Additionally, the ARIMA model proves to be a suitable tool for predicting future trends in water ecosystem carrying capacity changes across multiple river basins.