[关键词]
[摘要]
以山东省为研究区域,选取21个代表性指标,采用熵权-层次分析法确定水资源关联系统协调性评价指标权重,构建云耦合协调模型,分析2010—2021年水资源关联系统协调性及动态变化。结果表明:山东省水资源关联系统耦合协调度整体呈现不断上升的变化趋势,其变化范围为0.608~0.715,耦合协调发展等级逐渐由初级协调水平向中级协调水平发展变化,在2014年和2019年出现明显变点;在空间上各地区耦合协调度呈现东高西低的分布特征,不同阶段耦合协调发展水平地域性差异性较为明显,整体上由高到低为胶东半岛地区>鲁中南地区>鲁西北地区,其中,济南市和青岛市耦合协调发展能力最优,达到良好协调水平,德州市和滨州市耦合协调发展能力较为缓慢,维持在初级协调水平;未来山东省应加强鲁西北平原区水资源关联系统协调发展,促进全省空间均衡。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
In recent years, many scholars have studied the coordinated evaluation of water resources linkage system, mainly focusing on water-economic society, water-energy-food, water-vegetation-soil, water-economy-ecology and other fields. The research scale mainly involves watershed scale and regional scale, and the evaluation method mainly adopts qualitative evaluation. Generally speaking, there are different combinations of grey correlation degree, pressure-state-response model, coupling coordination model, distance coordination degree and so on. It is well known that qualitative evaluation methods have certain ambiguity in the process of constructing evaluation index system and quantitative evaluation criteria. The uncertainty cloud theory proposed by LI Deyi in China can fully describe the uncertainty of qualitative and quantitative indicators and realize the mutual transformation of qualitative and quantitative processes. It was less applied in the evaluation of coupling coordination of water resources correlation systems. Therefore, cloud theory is introduced to construct cloud coupling coordination model to analyze and evaluate the coordination of water resources correlation systems, which makes the evaluation results more generalized.The index system of water resources correlation system including 21 indexes was established. The entropy weight-analytic hierarchy process combination method was used to determine the weight of the evaluation index. The cloud uncertainty theory was introduced to construct the cloud coupling coordination model. The cloud similarity was used to quantitatively give the evaluation results of coupling coordination degree of water resources correlation system. Compared with the traditional coupling coordination model, it had better adaptability and generalization. Taking Shandong Province as an example, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of coordination between water resources correlation systems from 2010 to 2021 were analyzed.The comprehensive evaluation index of the economic and social subsystem was also growing, reaching a maximum of 0.634 in 2021; the comprehensive evaluation index of the ecological environment subsystem was only 0.237 at the beginning of 2010. The coupling coordination degree of water resources correlation system in Shandong Province has been continuously improved as a whole, from 0.608 in 2010 to 0.715 in 2021, realizing the transition from primary coordination to intermediate coordination. In space, the coupling coordination degree of each city in the province showed the distribution characteristics of high in the east and low in the west, and the coupling coordination degree had been continuously improved with time.The coupling and coordinated development ability of Jinan City and Qingdao City is the best, reaching a good coordination level. The coupling and coordinated development ability of Dezhou City and Binzhou City is relatively slow, maintaining at the primary coordination level. In the future, Shandong Province should strengthen the coordinated development of water resources correlation systems in the northwest plain of Shandong Province and promote the spatial balance of the whole province.
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