在新型人水关系下，人为因素对生态基流的影响逐步加大，正确分析人为影响因素对流域生态基流保障的影响，并尽快制定流域生态基流保障程度的量化方法对流域生态保护具有重要意义。利用土壤和水评估工具（soil and water assessment tool，SWAT）模拟河流径流量，进一步计算生态基流保障指数（ecological base flow guarantee index，IEBFG），以反映生态基流保障程度，在此基础上采用随机回归影响模型（stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology，STIRPAT）从人口规模、经济发展水平、技术发展水平、城镇化水平以及各行业用水水平等方面分析2008—2016年沁河流域生态基流保障指数影响因素。结果表明：沁河流域生态基流保障程度在年尺度上呈现“N”型增加趋势，2015年因干旱导致大幅下跌，在月尺度上与沁河汛期、旱期同步变化；从上游至下游，流域生态基流保障程度逐渐变好，干流流经的子流域生态基流保障程度比支流好；全流域范围内生态基流保障程度“差”与“较差”区域占比高于50%，仅2014年出现“一般”，流域生态基流保障程度亟待提升；城镇化水平对沁河流域生态基流保障程度影响最大，农业、工业、生活用水量影响程度较大且贡献率相似，技术发展水平次之，人口规模与经济发展水平对沁河流域生态基流保障程度的影响相对较小。研究结果可为沁河流域生态基流保护、流域协调发展提供基础支持，并可为其他流域的生态基流保障程度计算以及评价提供思路。

It is of great significance to accurately analyze the influence of human factors on the ecological base flow guarantee of watershed and to develop the quantitative method of ecological base flow guarantee degree. Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate river flows, and to compute the ecological base flow guarantee index (IEBFG) for assessing the extent of ecological base flow protection. The analysis was underpinned by the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology (STIRPAT) model, thus, evaluating the effects of population size, economic development level, technological development level, urbanization level and water consumption level of various industries. In the methodological approach, the SWAT model was utilized to simulate the river runoff within the Qin River basin. While the subsequent calculations of the IEBFG provided a quantifiable measure of the ecological base flow's security. Additionally, the STIRPAT model facilitated an in-depth analysis of the driving factors affecting ecological base flows, categorizing them into demographic, economic, technological, and urban metrics. Results revealed a N-shaped increase trend in the ecological base flow guarantee level within the basin on an annual scale, with a notable decrease in the year 2015, attributed to severe drought conditions. Monthly variations were found to correspond with the seasonal cycles of floods and dry periods within the Qin River. An improvement in ecological base flow guarantee levels were observed from the upstream to downstream sections of the basin. Mainstream sub-basins demonstrated superior ecological base flow protection compared to their tributary counterparts. More than half of the regions within the Qin River basin were classified under "poor" or "relatively poor" categories concerning ecological base flow protection, with an exception in the year 2014, which showed a "normal" status. Among the studied factors, urbanization exhibited the most significant impact on ecological base flow security, followed by technological development, on the other hand the population size and economic growth had less pronounced effects. It is concluded that the urbanization level along with agricultural, industrial and domestic water use has the greatest influence on the ecological base flow guarantee degree, followed by the technological development level, and the population size and economic development level which have relatively little influence on the ecological base flow guarantee degree in the Qinhe River basin. The findings underscore the necessity for integrated approaches in river basin management to balance developmental and ecological needs. The research results provide a basis for ecological base flow protection and coordinated development of the Qinhe River basin, and also provide a way to calculate and evaluate the ecological base flow guarantee degree of other river basins.