河北省天然水资源匮乏的现状已成为制约其社会经济发展的关键因素，探讨水资源与社会经济协调发展演变规律是实现可持续发展的必要途径。本文结合相邻地区正负效应，耦合“压力-状态-响应”（PSR）模型与马尔科夫（Markov）模型，构建了河北省水资源与社会经济协调发展评价模型，并通过分析河北省及各地级市的协调发展程度及邻域效应，揭示其时空演变规律。结果表明：从时间演变看，河北省PSR系统整体与内部协调度自2019年持续上升，2021年达到最大值，发展前景良好，但短期难以跨等级跃升或衰退；从空间分布看，协调发展程度呈现中南部高、北部低的特点，高协调区多集中于经济发达的地级市，如唐山市、石家庄市。相邻地级市的协调发展类型显著影响周边地区，“中水平”和“低水平”地区存在“近朱者赤，近墨者黑”的规律，而“高水平”地区则不显著。本研究可为河北省实现水资源刚性约束下的高质量发展提供参考借鉴。

The scarcity of natural water resources in Hebei Province has become a critical constraint on its socio-economic development. Understanding the evolution of the coordinated development between water resources and socio-economic systems is essential for achieving sustainable development. Addressing this challenge requires an in-depth exploration of the interplay between water resource management and socio-economic progress to guide effective strategies. This study integrates the “Pressure-State-Response” (PSR) model with the Markov model, incorporating both positive and negative effects from neighboring regions. An evaluation model was developed to assess the coordinated development of water resources and socio-economic systems in Hebei Province. The analysis examines the degree of coordination and neighborhood effects at both the provincial and prefecture-level city scales, revealing spatiotemporal patterns in their evolution. The findings indicate notable temporal and spatial dynamics. Temporally, the overall and internal coordination levels of Hebei Province’s PSR system have shown a steady rise since 2019, reaching their peak in 2021. While the development outlook is promising, significant transitions across coordination levels are unlikely in the short term. Spatially, the coordination degree shows a pattern of being higher in the central and southern regions and lower in the northern regions. Highly coordinated areas are concentrated in economically advanced cities such as Tangshan and Shijiazhuang. The coordination types of neighboring cities significantly influence surrounding areas. Medium- and low-level coordination regions display a "proximity effect," where adjacent areas tend to converge in development levels, whereas this effect is less pronounced in high-coordination regions. This study provides insights into the spatiotemporal evolution of the coordinated development of water resources and socio-economic systems in Hebei Province. The results emphasize the importance of neighborhood effects in shaping regional development patterns and offer a reference for achieving high-quality development under the constraints of water resource scarcity. The proposed framework and findings can serve as a technical foundation for sustainable development planning in Hebei and similar regions.

TV212

河北省重点研发计划项目（21374201D）；国家自然科学基金青年基金项目（52209042）；国家自然科学基金面上基金项目（52079143）；河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目（CXY2024037）；国家重点研发计划（2023YFC3209400）