随着全球变暖的加剧，气候变化对黄河流域系统治理和高质量发展产生了重要影响。基于地面气象站观测资料，采用美国宇航局地球交换全球每日降尺度预测（NEX-GDDP-CMIP6）气候模式数据下的7个气候模式和4个基线情景，评估了各个气候模式和集合模式对黄河各个水资源三级区1956—2018年的模拟能力，并预测了4个“一级”温室气体排放情景即共享社会经济途径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathway，SSP）情景下2021-2080年黄河各个水资源三级区的降水和气温时空变化规律。研究发现：相较于现有的上中下游区域划分，本研究对黄河流域29个三级水资源区进行了更精细化的分析，揭示了不同区域在气候变化下的差异特征；在降水模拟方面，发现BBC_CSM2_MR模式在河源至玛曲（分区1）的表现优于模式集合，突破了传统统一采用模式集合数据进行降水预估的局限性，证明了单一模式在特定区域的高精度应用潜力；未来气候变化呈现“湿热”趋势，降水冬季变化最大，夏季最小；气温变化以夏季最大、冬季次之为主，表现为高温增强、低温减弱。研究结果可为未来黄河流域三级水资源区极端气候变化趋势研判和生态治理调控提供参考。

The intensification of global warming has a significant impact on the systematic governance and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, particularly in light of the challenges posed by climate change. Seven climate models and four baseline scenarios under the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Precipitation Scale Prediction (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate model data are used to assess the simulation capability of each climate model and ensemble model for each water resource tertiary zone of the Yellow River. This is based on ground-based meteorological station observations. From 1956 to 2018, the temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature were predicted under the four SSP scenarios from 2021 to 2080. The results of the study show that the climate model's simulation of temperature in the tertiary water resource zone of the Yellow River Basin is better than the simulation of precipitation. The future climate change trend is characterized by the humidification and thermalization of the Yellow River Basin. With the enhancement of radiative forcing in the SSP scenario, the seasonal trends of precipitation and air temperature are obvious: the change of precipitation is the largest in winter and the smallest in summer, while the change of air temperature mainly reaches the peak in summer, followed by the second one in winter, and the overall performance is that the high temperature is enhanced and the low temperature is weakened. The study provides an important reference for the assessment of future extreme climate change trends as well as ecological governance and regulation in the tertiary water resource zones of the Yellow River Basin, suggesting that future climate change will significantly affect water resource management and ecological protection in the basin.

国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）