为持续发挥南水北调工程的经济带动作用、促进受水县经济高质量发展，采用经济学的理论和实证研究方法检验南水北调中线工程通水对河南、河北、北京和天津受水县经济韧性的影响及其机制。首先从经济持续稳定性、新质生产力和创业环境角度进行理论分析并提出研究假设；再构建双重差分拟合回归模型对假设进行实证检验，并进行一系列稳健性检验；最后进行机制检验。结果表明，南水北调中线工程通水可以显著提升受水县经济韧性，且经过一系列稳健性检验后，结论依然成立。在影响机制方面，南水北调中线工程通水，激发了受水县创新活跃度和创业活跃度，最终正向作用于该地区的经济韧性。研究从水资源约束缓解的视角深入探讨区域经济韧性变化，揭示了南水北调工程对地方经济可持续发展的积极作用及其影响机制，为优化资源配置的宏观布局和水资源管理规划提供科学依据，有助于强化南水北调工程对地方经济高质量发展的辐射力和带动力。

In order to continuously maintain the economic driving role of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and facilitate the high-quality economic development of the recipient counties, the impact of the operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project's Middle Route on the economic resilience of the recipient counties in Henan, Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin, along with its underlying mechanisms, are examined by applying rigorous economic theories and empirical methods. Theoretical analyses are conducted and research hypotheses are put forward from the perspectives of economic sustainable stability, new quality productivity and entrepreneurial environment. Subsequently, these hypotheses are empirically tested through econometric methods. In the empirical test, the explained variable is the economic resilience index, which is calculated by means of the entropy method with indicators selected from the four dimensions of resistance ability, restructuring ability, adaptation ability and transformation ability. The core explanatory variable is the water receiving situation of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project , obtained by constructing the interaction term of time dummy variables and policy dummy variables. The control variables encompass population density, industrial scale and so on. After determining the variables, a difference-in-differences model is adopted, and data from the "China County Statistical Yearbook" are incorporated for regression fitting to estimate the coefficients within the model. This is followed by a series of robustness tests and analyses of the impact mechanisms. The regression results demonstrate that the impact of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project on the economic resilience of the recipient counties is significantly positive at the 1% level, suggesting that the alleviation of water resource constraints can significantly enhance the economic resilience of the counties. In terms of the effect magnitude, the Middle Route Project can increase the economic resilience index by 0.0504. This indicates that after controlling for other relevant factors, as well as the original differences between the treatment group and the control group and the overall time trend, the operation of the Middle Routes of South-to-North Water Diversion Project elevates the economic resilience index of the recipient counties in Henan, Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin by 0.0504 compared to that of the non-recipient counties. It is 0.0504 higher than that of the non-recipient counties and 11.88% higher than that of the non-recipient counties prior to the operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests such as the parallel trend test, placebo test, lagging the explained variable by one period and propensity score matching-difference-in-differences. Regarding the impact mechanism, the operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project's Middle Route stimulates innovation activities and entrepreneurial activities in the recipient counties, which ultimately exerts a positive influence on the economic resilience of the region. The findings of this study disclose the positive effects of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project on the sustainable development of the local economy and its impact mechanism, providing a scientific basis for optimizing the regional development strategy and water resources management planning. Moreover, incorporating the new quality productivity into the economic effects of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project helps to strengthen the radiation effect and the driving force of the project on the high-quality development of the local economy.

国家社科基金(17BJY046)；上海市哲学社会科学规划基金（(2024EJL005)）