Variation Characteristics of Meteorological Elements and Prediction Model of Available Precipitation of Xi’an City
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Abstract:
The data from 1951 to 2008 from Xi’an station were used to analyze the variation characteristics of precipitation, evaporation and available precipitation in the area. The available precipitation forecasting model based on weighted Markov chain was established and the relationship between model forecasting errors and the observed value of available precipitation was also analyzed. The forecasting results were amended by the frequency curve. The results show that the variation of available rainfall is significant in a year, and it is most abundant in September while is least in December. The proportion of available precipitation in autumn and winter are 44.5% and 2.1%, respectively and the available rainfall coefficients are 0.36 and 011 respectively for the two seasons. During the past 58 years from 1951 to 2008, the average available rainfall reduces in a linear tendency at 0.99 mm per year. The forecasting of available precipitation in Xi’an was taken as an example. The forecasting errors and the real value of local available precipitation are inversely related. The relative errors verified by theoretic frequency curve decreases. It is concluded that the available precipitation forecasting model based on weighted Markov chain modified by theoretic frequency curve can be used to predict the available precipitation in Xi’an.
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