The gGrey DGM(1,1) metabolic Dynamic Ppredication Mmodel of Regionalarea Mminimum Nnight Fflow
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Abstract:
Taking an actual district metering area (DMA) as an example case study, and based on the data from the supervisory control and data acquisition, the characteristics of flow discharge at the inlet of DMA’s inlet flow are analyzed by using the trend chart and grey correlation analysis. Moreover, 4 grey models of minimum night flow(MNF) are built developed based on the grey theory, which suggests and it is concluded that the grey DGM(1,1) model is supposed to be the best model for predicting DMA’s MNF by comparativelywhen comparing the accuracies analyzing the of modeling and forecasting accuracy of those modelsmodel and prediction results. The grey DGM(1,1) metabolic model is ahas good dynamic prediction model accuracy. The threshold of the DMA’s MNF is obtained by using the application of the grey DGM(1,1) metabolic model for interval predication, which plays has an early warning effect for assessing the leakage condition of DMA.
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