Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Change in the Nansihu Lake Watershed Based on the Information Entropy Theory
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Abstract:
The Nansihu Lake Wwatershed was is the key area of Eastern Route of South-to-North Water TransferDiversion Project, and therefore. It was it is of great importance to study the current situation of land use and its future development trend in order to guaranteeing the smooth implementation of the South-to-North Water Transfer Diversion Pproject and to promotepromoting the sustainable development development of the areathat researched the present situation of land use and its development trend in the future. Under the support of RS and GIS technology, obtained the a series of land use series data of land use change was obtained in theof Nansihu Lake Wwatershed during the period of from 1995 to- 2010, and . Based on the information entropy theory was used to analyze the variation and structural evolution of land use quantitatively. , this paper quantitatively analyzed the change of land use type and land use structure. The results indicated showed that (1) the farm land reducesd continuously, the level of vegetation cover restored recovers, and the water and wetland and the construction land were enlargedincrease from 1950 to 2010; (2) in a large extent. tThe land use information entropy increasesd, the equilibrium degree raised rises whereasand the dominance degree declineddecreases, which shownindicating the decreasing controlling force of single type to the entire land use structure abated and, a tendency to balance of land use structure tended to balance; ; and (3) the integrated comprehensive index of land use degree dropped decreases from 1950 to 2000during 1995-2000, but increases continuously raised since 2000, suggesting a developing stage for land use in the watershedwhich revealed that the land of Nansihu Lake watershed was in development stage. Using tThe GM (1, 1) model was used to predict the land use change, the resultswhich indicated that the land use structure would further adjust to reach the balanceand become more and more balanced.
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