The LSSVM Method to Forecast the Break-up Date of the TouDaoguai Station along the Yellow River
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Abstract:
According to the analysis of measured ice data, the paper pointed out that the evolution of the ice sheet thickness can be used as the main basis for forecasting the break-up date at the TouDaoguai station along the Yellow River, and the persistent and cumulative effects of temperature and flow during the freezing period are also important factors which affect the timing of break-up date. A new method to forecast the break-up date using the data mining technology (DM) and least square support machine (LSSVM) was presented in this paper. The LSSVM model was used to predict the break-up dates at the TouDaoguai station in 2010, 2011, and 2012, and the results showed that the method can predict the break-up date on any date of ice sheet thickness observation during the frozen period, which can expand the forecast period effectively. Furthermore, the predicted values of break-up date before March 6th met the requirements of the allowable prediction error rate. An average value method of forecasting the break-up date was proposed according to the characteristics of volatility change in the prediction error produced by the LSSVM model, which can improve the prediction accuracy significantly.
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