Second Time Supply and Demand Balance Analysis of Regional Water Resources Based on System Dynamics
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Abstract:
According to the present water resources conditions of Jiangsu Province, system dynamics simulation method was used to predict the water resources supply and demand balance in Jiangsu Province in 2020 and 2030 level year under different guarantee rates (50%, 75%, and 95%). On the basis, the first time supply and demand balance analysis of water resources was performed under the current conditions, and the second time supply and demand balance analysis of water resources was performed under the conditions of improved water supply capacity and water saving measures. The results showed insufficiency for the first time supply and demand balance analysis of water resources, and that the imbalance between supply and demand improves for the second time supply and demand balance analysis of water resources. The insufficiency can decrease 49.70% under the guarantee rate of 50% in 2020, and decrease 47.43% under the guarantee rate of 50% in 2030.
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