Review of Research and Application of Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast
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Abstract:
Compared with the traditional determined hydrologic forecast, hydrologic ensemble forecast contains various uncertainties in the hydrologic forecast processes. Therefore, the accuracy and validity of hydrologic forecast have been improved theoretically. Meanwhile, the cognitive and predictive capabilities of the events such as storm, flood, and drought have been enhanced in the practical applications. The hydrologic ensemble forecast can provide more accurate and useful information in flood control, drought relief, and sustainable water resources management. In this paper, we firstly reviewed the history of hydrologic ensemble forecast, and then we summarized the research progresses in theory, methods, as well as the applications and operational hydrologic ensemble forecast. We focused on two research aspects of the pre-processing and post-processing issues in an effort to provide a useful platform for the development of hydrologic ensemble prediction. The perspectives and recommendations on this subject were provided. This paper is of important significance in the future development of hydrologic ensemble forecast research.
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