Dynamic Extending Approach of Similar Flood Based on Gray Correlation Analysis
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Abstract:
Under the current conditions that the subsequent flood cannot be predicted with high accuracy, the study on the historical storm flood information is important as it may provide valuable information to reduce the risk of reservoir flood control. In this paper, we developed a method to standardize the historical flood and selected the index system to reflect the flood characteristics on the basis of the formation mechanism of storm flood and available real-time information. Based on the gray correlation analysis theory, a dynamic identification approach of similar flood and an evaluation method of the extending effects of real-time flood forecasting process of similar flood were developed. The methods were applied to simulate the storm flood in the Chitan reservoir, which showed that the flood extending method has high efficiency to estimate the subsequent flood. Overall, the method is applicable, adaptable, and stable.
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