Uncertainty Analysis of the Risk in the Safe Operation of Small Reservoirs
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Abstract:
There are a number of small reservoirs in China, but they are in poor security situation with the lack of effective security monitoring and out-of-date management, therefore they have high risk in safe operation. Over the years, the security identification for reservoirs mainly focuses on qualitative evaluation, and the quantitative assessment of operation risk and impact on downstream properties of dangerous reservoirs are missing. The operation risk of small reservoirs varies and remains uncertain, and the uncertainty is often interactive and interdependent. In this paper, the uncertainty of operation risk was considered as a grey system, and the grey theory and stochastic probability method were combined to develop the power function. The modified first-order second-moment method can convert the calculation of grey-stochastic probability into the calculation of general stochastic probability, which can better quantify the uncertainty of operation risk of reservoirs. The case studies of application of the above method demonstrate that the calculation can provide good guidance for the safe operation and reinforcement of small reservoirs.
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