Application of Beginning of Winter in the Prediction of Date When Transmission Water Temperature Becomes Negative in South-to-North Water Diversion Project
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Abstract:
The relationship between Chinese traditional twenty-four solar terms and hydrology is analyzed and the scientific basis of using solar terms in the hydrological prediction is developed. The Beginning of Winter is selected as the datum point of the statistic date in the prediction. The BP-ANNs model improved by Levenberg-Marquartalgorithm is introduced to predict the dates when temperature becomes negative in the cities of the north of Yellow River. The correlation coefficients of the date when temperature becomes negative in Xinxiang, Anyang, Xingtai, Shijiazhuang city, Baoding, and Beijing from 1957 to 2005 were compared. All of the correlation coefficients in the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar are greater than those in the coordinate system of solar calendar, which suggests that the correlation of the date when temperature becomes negative is stronger in the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar. In addition, the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar and solar calendar were used to predict 16 sets of dates when temperature becomes negative. The results showed that the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar predicts 13 sets of acceptable data while the coordinate system of solar calendar predicts 11 sets of acceptable data. Therefore, the application of the traditional twenty-four solar terms in the prediction of date when temperature becomes negative is feasible.
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