Research Progress on Hydrological Application of Meteorological Ensemble Forecast
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Abstract:
Ensemble forecast is a probabilistic forecast technique developed from the uncertainty of numerical prediction. Using ensemble forecast can improve the forecast time and accuracy of hydrological forecast in reservoir operation. It has been widely used in developed countries. In this paper, the development progress of ensemble forecast was introduced, and the research progress on ensemble forecast in hydrological application was analyzed from three aspects, including the flood warning, runoff prediction, and reservoir regulation. In addition, the verification of ensemble forecast and key issues in the hydrological application were discussed.
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