Climate Change Trend Analysis in Western Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project
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Abstract:
Based on the precipitation, temperature, sunshine duration, mean wind speed, average relative humidity, and average vapor pressure data at 13 meteorological stations in the Western Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project and adjacent regions over the past 60 years, the Mann-Kendall test, Hurst coefficient method, and wavelet method were used to perform the trend, continuity, and periodicity analysis on these meteorological factors. The results indicated that (1) the temperature at each station increases significantly, especially in the winter; (2) annual precipitation at 92% of total stations has an insignificant increasing trend, but precipitation has a significant increasing trend in the spring; and (3) annual sunshine duration at 64% of total stations shows a decreasing trend. Stations that have apparent variation trends of meteorological factors often belong to headwater catchment. Hurst coefficients of meteorological factors are were all greater than 0.5, which indicated a positive long-term continuity and that the variation trend in future is similar to that in the past. Morover, each meteorological factor sequence had an obvious cycle of 6 to 18 years.
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