Variation Trend Analysis of Major Climatic Variables and Runoff in the Longchuan River Basin
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Abstract:
In this study, the long-term trends of monthly temperature and precipitation from 1970 to 2009 and annual runoff data from 1961 to 2008 in the Longchuan River Basin were analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method. In addition, the R/S method was used to investigate the continuity of the time series data of annual temperature, precipitation, and runoff in the basin and to estimate the Hurst exponent for each index, which can be used to estimate the variation trends of temperature, precipitation, and runoff quantitatively. The results showed that (1) precipitation has an insignificant increasing trend in the basin and it will continue to increase, especially at Yuanmou station; (2) temperature has a significant increasing trend in the basin and it will continue to increase; and (3) runoff has an insignificant decreasing trend in the basin and it will continue to decrease but without strong continuity.
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