Quantitative Assessment of Drought Risk in Upstream of Nanpanjiang River in Yunnan
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Abstract:
The Principal Component Analysis method was used to develop a comprehensive drought index and then to calculate the drought frequency. The AquaCrop model was used to assess the drought loss under a certain drought resistance capacity. On the basis, the relationships among drought frequency, drought resistance capacity, and drought loss were constructed and then applied to evaluate the agricultural drought risk quantitatively. The method was applied to the upstream of the West Bridge hydrological station in the Nanpanjiang River. The results showed that (1) Luliang County is the drought prone area under the current drought resistance level; (2) drought loss of Luliang County is relatively larger than that of Zhanyi County and Qilin District with the same drought degree, which is consistent with the actual situation; and (3) the crop loss rate of drought in the study area is between 15% and 20% when the study area experiences a severe drought of once in a hundred years under the current drought resistance level.
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