Application of Time Series Analysis in the Annual Precipitation Prediction of Zhengzhou city
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Abstract:
Time series analysis method has comprehensive importance and prospects in the precipitation forecast. Based on the precipitation data from 1971 to 2009 in Zhengzhou city, the trend component of precipitation was determined by the quadratic polynomial calibration, the periodic component of precipitation was extracted by the spectrum analysis, and the stochastic component was simulated using the auto-regression model. The precipitation prediction model in Zhengzhou City was established through the superposition of these components. In comparison with the simulated and measured data, the precipitation prediction model has a high accuracy. The model was applied to forecast the precipitation in Zhengzhou city from 2014 to 2016, which can provide reference for the water resources management in this area.
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