Benefit research of flow prediction in optimal operation of cascaded reservoir
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Abstract:
An o pt imal o per ation model o f hydro power stat ions in the cascaded r eser voir w as dev elo ped based on the coupling of long2term and shor t2term predictio n models of flow into the reserv oir . T he mo del was applied to the first2and second2g rade hy2 dro power st ations in the cascaded reserv oir of Jinping, and the pr edict ion benefit of flow int o the r eser vo ir was discussed. T he results showed that the mo del can pro vide the quantitativ e relationship bet ween pow er benefits, predictio n time, and predictio n accuracy o f the hy dropow er stations in the cascaded reservo ir of Jinping . In g ener al, lo ng er pr ediction time leads to higher pre2 dictio n accuracy and g reater pow er output s. It is sugg ested that the pr edict ion t ime o f flow int o the cascaded reserv oir of Jinping should not be less than 5 day s and the mean r elativ e abso lute err or o f predict ion sho uld be less than 0. 15.
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