Application of combining forecast model in the prediction of reservoir sedimentation amount
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Abstract:
A combining for ecast mo del w as developed based on four individual models, including the ex ponential smoothing , fuzzy moving , linear r egr essio n, and g rey fo recast models. Mor eover , a combining f orecast mo del was developed fo r a r eser voir based on the measured sedimentatio n amo unts from 1997 to 2012. T he r esult s show ed that the combining for ecast model has advanta2 g es in combining the useful informat ion fr om individua l mo dels, and the mean absolute err or percent age is 2. 539 3% fo r the combining for ecast mo del, w hich has hig her pr edict ion accuracy than the indiv idual mo dels. T her efor e, the combining fo recast model has pr act ical values.