Quanti tative research on the effects of climate change and human activity on runoff
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Abstract:
The basin w ater cy cle model SWAT and r egio na l climate mo del RegCm3 wer e coupled to dev elop the comprehensiv e simulatio n plat form o f basin w ater cycle, which was applied in the upper and middle r eaches of the Lancang2Meko ng Riv er. Compar ed w ith the nat ur al conditio ns, the effects of climate change ( temper atur e and precipitation) and reservo ir o perat ion o n the r unoff in the low er reach w ere investig ated quantitat ively. The r esults show ed that bo th climate change and reserv oir o per a2 tion can decrease the runoff in the low er reach o f the Lancang2Meko ng River in the next tw enty y ears, w ith the contributio n rat e of 88% from climate change w hile 12% fr om reserv oir operat ion. Climate chang e is the main reason to cause the decr easing of runo ff in the low er reach, w ith the contr ibution r ate o f 81% from temperatur e va riation w hile 19% from precipitation v ariation. Co nsequently , temperature is the most important facto r to affect the runoff in the low er r each of the Lancang2Mekong Riv er. The ef fects of reservo ir o per atio n on the r uno ff had significant var iatio ns w ithin a year, but insig nificant v ariat ions betw een dif2 fer ent y ears.
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