Spatial2temporal variations of precipitation and drought characteristics in Wei River Basin
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Abstract:
The Wei River Basin is located at a ty pical fr ail zo ne of eco log ical env ir onment in the east par t o f nor thwest China, where fr equent dro ug ht disaster s become the majo r factor which restr icts the sustainable dev elopment of r eg io nal economy , es2 pecially the ag ricultural eco nomy. Therefor e, it is impor tant study t he hig h and low water chang es o f precipitation and droug ht char acter istics in the basin to understand the cause and development law of dr ought. Based on the pr ecipitation data from 14 typ2 ical weather stat ions, accor ding to the methods such as Mann2Kendall t rend test, fr equency analysis, differ ential curve, and runs analysis, variation tr ends of precipitation and less wat er probability char acter istics wer e analyzed. The r esults showed that: ( 1) pr ecipitatio n has a signif icantly decreasing tr end, especially in spr ing and autumn in the r ecent 40 years, which increases the oc2 curr ing possibility of reg ional droug ht; ( 2) the precipit ation pr ocess presents the w et2dr y alt ernating phenomenon, continual wet years and dr y year s occur ring and ov erla pping frequent ly , w hich indicat es that the dr ought and flood may coex ist in one y ear; ( 3) the occurr ence pro babilit y o f continual dry year s is higher than that o f co ntinual w et y ear s, and less w ater perio d can last for 2 t o 3 y ears, w hich leads t o dro ught w ith lar ger intensity ; and ( 4) the frequency and intensity o f droug ht events have an increas2 ing trend in Wei River Basin since 1991. Therefo re, it sho uld be pa id hig h attent ion to the bigg er threat o f agr icultural develop2 ment and w ater safety in t he future.
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