Dynamic variation analysis of water resources carrying capaci ty in Xiamen City based on rough set theory and BP neural network
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Abstract:
Evaluat ion of water resources car ry ing capacity is the fo undation of reg ional ecolog ical env ir onment const ruct ion and is import ant fo r determining the dir ect ion of socio2economic dev elo pment. In the paper , r edundant indicato rs w ere scr eened by the roug h set theor y, and then the reduced index system w as serv ed as input to the BP neur al netwo rk to evaluate the dy namic change o f ca rr ying capacity of water resources in Xiamen Cit y. Based on t he investig atio n of wat er resources and r elated influen2 cing facto rs, the evaluat ion index sy st em o f w ater reso ur ces carr ying capacity w as constructed fr om four aspects including w ater resources system, eco nomic system, eco lo gical sy stem, and so cial system, and the dynamic change of water r eso ur ces carr ying ca2 pacity in Xiamen City from 2000 to 2012 w as evaluated. The results showed that the water resources car rying capacity in Xiamen City was weak and unsustainable fr om 2000 to 2004; was weakly sustainable from 2005 to 2010, indicating incompatible status between socio2 economic activity and water resources; and was improved from 2011 to 2012 to reach the sustainable status.
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