Development of risk evaluation index system of long2distance water transmission pipeline based on fuzzy simi larity
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Abstract:
Vario us r isks ex ist in the long2distance w ater transmission pipeline pr oject because o f its complex it y. Because the acci2 dent is usually disastr ous, it is not r ealistic to obtain t he fr equency and induced loss of the r isk ev ent. Due to that the vag ueness and co rr elation o f r isk index es usually have sig nificant impacts on the risk assessment results, a fuzzy similarity evaluation meth2 o d w as pr oposed based o n the fuzzy sim ilar ity theo ry and tr iang ular fuzzy number, and it w as used to evaluate the risks for the long2distance w ater tr ansmissio n pipeline project lo cated in the nor theast of China. T he initially identified risk events w ere se2 lect ed, and the fuzzy similarit y evaluat ion method was applied to the r isk index system. T he results show ed that five g ro ups of index es hav e high similarit y, including heavy snow fall and landslide, irr ationality of the o ver all layout of the pro ject and fr equent flow adjust ment, equipment failure and breakdow n o f monito ring sy stem, incomplete management facilities, and inadequate fund guarantee. The r esult s w ere consistent with t he actual conditio ns and the indexes w ith lower weig hts can be eliminated. Co nse2 quently, the complex it y of com pr ehensive r isk assessment can be r educed using the new ly const ruct ed r isk index sy st em.
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