Classification forecast method for mid2 to long2term runoff in river basin
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Abstract:
Based on the basic pr inciple o f hydr olo gic cycle, the basic concept and classificatio n of mid2 to long2term r unof f fo recast are defined from the perspect ive of impact factor s of water vapor so ur ces o f riv er basin r unoff, the met eo ro lo gical fact ors ( mid2 term) , climate facto rs ( long2term) , and ast ronomica l f acto rs ( v ery long2term) ar e selected as the pr edict ors, and the ten2day, monthly, seaso nally ( floo d) or annual runoff tar geting to the outlet sect ion of riv er basin ( or ty pical section) and dro ught and floo d t rend are f orecasted. Thro ug h the compar ison o f the differ ence in the physical mo vement mechanism of w ater vapo r sy st em under different time scales, the r ationality of / shor t2term climate prediction0 as the theo retical basis fo r mid2 to long2term r unoff forecast is demo nstr ated. The impact factor s fo r the r unoff sources in r iver basin and their performance are summar ized as thr ee law s: the per io dic law o f astr onomical facto rs is the main rule, which r eflects the basic st ate of hydro log ical and climat ic pro cess; the r andom law o f atmospher ic cir culation has interference on the basic state o f hydro lo gy and climate, which leads to fluctua2 tion; and the character istic law o f riv er basin reflects the compr ehensiv e effects fr om var ious facto rs, which has par ticular ity . Fi2 nally, the mid2 t o long2term r unoff forecast can be divided into t wo catego ries: runoff pr ocess forecast in no rmal y ear and dr ought and floo d for ecast in abno rmal calamity y ear. T he fo rmer takes the hy dr olog ical and climatic elements as predictor s whereas the latt er takes t he astro nomical factor s as predictor s. In terms of service objects, the fo rmer serv es fo r the regular op2 er ation and scheduling of wat er pr ojects whereas the latt er pr ov ides disaster fo recast fo r disaster preventio n and reduct ion in floo d co nt rol and dr ought resistance departments. In terms o f publicatio n of results, t he former pr ovides the quant itativ e fo recast of r unoff pr ocess whereas the latt er pr ovides t he qualitative for ecast of level 3 ( or level 5) and similar year s. In terms o f fo recast met ho ds, t he fo rmer adopts mathematical statistics met ho d or physical cause co rrelatio n analy sis w hereas the latter ado pts com2 prehensive for ecasting ident ificatio n method of per iodicity , r andomness, and w atershed particularit y.
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