Dynamic simulation of urban water resources carrying capacity based on system dynamic model ) A case study in Jiamusi City
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Abstract:
In o rder to resolve the contradictio n bet ween urban w ater resources supply and demand, to enhance t he sustainable car2 r ying capacity o f ur ban w ater r eso urces, and to realize t he sustainable dev elopment of social economy, the system dynamics met ho d w as applied to build a dynamic simulatio n model of w ater resources car ry ing capacit y in Jiamusi City. Based on t he char2 acter istics of reg ional r eso ur ces utilizat ion and so cioeconomic develo pment, fo ur schemes w ere desig ned to enhance the water re2 sour ces carr ying capacit y, including current situation co nt inuation scheme, po llution co nt rol and incr easing income scheme, lim it2 ing ex ploitat ion and decreasing expendit ur e scheme, and compr ehensiv e coo rdination scheme. The simulatio n r esult s showed t hat the balance betw een w ater resources supply and demand is not r ea lized under t he fo rmer thr ee schemes fr om 2012 to 2030, and water resources sho rtag e still r est ricts the industr ial and ag ricult ur al pro ductio n and socioeco nomic dev elo pment of Jiamusi City. Howev er, t he balance betw een wat er resources supply and demand in 2015 and rapidly so cioeconomic dev elopment ar e real2 ized under the comprehensiv e co ordinatio n scheme. Thus, the comprehensiv e co or dination scheme is t he best scheme t o enhance the w ater r esources car ry ing capacity o f Jiamusi City.
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