Study on the estimation of design value under non2stationary environment
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Abstract:
In no n2stat ionary hydrolog ical f requency analysis ( NSH FA) , w ith the purpose of co nsider ing the impact o f environ2 ment chang e o n the character istic o f distr ibution function o f hydro lo gical ex tr eme series, the par ameter of distr ibut ion function is usually r egar ded as the funct ion of time or o ther factor s ( precipitat ion, t em perat ur e, etc. ) , which leads to the fact that the de2 sign value r elated to a g iven return per iod var ies w ith time or o ther dr iving facto rs chang e. That is to say that during t he desig n life per iod, fo r the g iven desig n standard, the cor respo nding desig n v alue obtained by the NSHFA metho d is chang eable, w hich makes it be diff icult t o em ploy the co ncept o f r eturn period and desig n v alue in tr adit ional frequency ana lysis ( T FA) to NSHFA . T her efore, the paper intr oduces the" equiv alent r eliability "method to solve hy drolog ical desig n pro blems under no n2stationary case. The" equiv alent reliability"means that the desig n reliability o f the hy dr aulic engineering is the same bot h in stationary and no n2stationary co ndit ions. Meanwhile, using" equivalent reliability "method can establish the r elationship bet ween NSH FA and TFA, which ensures the coor dinat ion of hydr olo gica l design obtained by NSH FA w ith TFA.
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