Study on monthly rainfall and runoff prediction in Danjiangkou Basin
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Abstract:
In o rder to predict monthly rainfall in Danjiang kou basin of the upper H an River , w e selected predictor s fr om 74 atmos2 pheric circulatio n facto rs by analyzing corr elation o f rainfall and fact ors, and multiple linear reg ression mo del w as established by which the monthly rainfall was predicted. SWAT model of the study area w as built to fo recast the monthly runoff by using monthly rainfall fo recast values as the mo del input. The monthly r ainfall and runo ff of 2012 wer e for ecasted w ith passing r ate bo th wer e abo ut 83 percent. It show s the metho d that monthly r ainfall predict ion based o n t he statist ical co rr elatio n of r ainfall and atmospheric cir culation factor s, and r unoff pr ediction combined w ith hydrolog ical mo del, is applicable to the studied ar ea.