Multi-year precipitation characteristics analysis and precipitation forecast of Xi’an city

Based on the observed data of precipitation from 1951 to 2013 in Xi’an city, its precipitation characteristics were analyzed using anomaly, accumulated anomaly and Mann-Kendall test method, and then annual precipitation was simulated and predicted by BP neural network. The results showed that annual precipitation of Xi’an city was descending, but the trend was insignificant (confidence level was 95%), all seasons presented descending except summer which showed a slight increasing trend, and precipitation in spring had a significant declining trend (confidence level was 95%). The abrupt change of annual precipitation occurred in 1965. The forecasting results by BP neural network showed that annual precipitations of 2014 and 2016 were abundant and 2015 was low. The research has certain significance for guiding scientific and rational use of precipitation resource.

Project Supported:

Clc Number: