Drought loss risk assessment model based on cross-validation and information diffusion

According to the data of grain output from 1990 to 2007 in Anhui Huaibei Plain, tendency yields were got by wielding sliding average method, and the annual yield reduction rates caused by drought were obtained by output reductions. The bandwidth was optimized by means of cross-validation for the improvement of accuracy of the information diffusion method in the drought loss risk assessment, and the applicability of information diffusion method based on cross-validation for the P-III distribution population in terms of computer simulation was proved. On this basis, the assessment model of drought loss risk was established, and the probability distribution of yield reduction rates caused by drought was caculated with information diffusion. Meanwhile, the risk distribution of regional drought was analyzed. It was found that the model in this paper was built reasonably and appropriately by comparison with others, and provided a certain reference value for solving common small sample size problems in the drought risk assessment.

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