Modified POT model and its application in early-warning methods for slope safety monitoring
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Abstract:
BMM model and POT model which based on extreme value theory are one of the newly-developing methods to assess the safety conditions of slope in recent years. The ignorant of secondary maximum points and the relatively small size of sample in the case of short-time data may lead to a big error in BMM model. A modified POT model was proposed in the paper to get the threshold with improved Hill estimator method and obtain the Pareto parameters with the maximum likelihood estimation so that the whole distribution could be determined. With the analysis of a slope engineering, the early-warning index which used the generalized Pareto distribution with the data exceeding the threshold was less than that using the normal distribution with the block maximum values in the case of same confidence level. It could be drawn from the results that the early-warning index based on modified POT model was more effective in slope safety monitoring, which could be made use of reducing the risk when extreme conditions happened.
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