Prediction for temporal and spatial variability of Poyang Lake inflow
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Abstract:
Accurate prediction of future inflow change into Poyang Lake can provide theoretical basis for the decision-making of water resources allocation during the post-Three Gorges Project period. Based on the analysis of observed discharge data, this paper found that after the impoundment of Three Gorges Reservoir in 2003, the inflows into the Poyang Lake of annual total and four scheduling periods have uniformly reduced in different degrees. Seven future inflow hydrographs of five major rivers of Poyang Lake Basin were obtained through the coupling of GCM (General Circulation Model) output data and Xin-An-Jiang hydrological model with the ASD (Automated Statistical Downscaling) statistical downscaling method. The results showed that compared to the observed change, the future change of annual total inflow into the Poyang Lake would be smaller, still showing alternating variations of positive and negative patterns; those tributaries with larger drainage areas i.e., Gan River, Fu River and Xin River, would make more contribution to the total inflow change; under both A2 and B2 scenarios, the change rates of impoundment period compared would be greater than that of any other scheduling period while that of day period would be smaller, and the change rate of each period would be greater than that of total inflow.
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