Return period calculation of drought events
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Abstract:
The concept of return period is commonly used to evaluate the severity of drought events. To compute the return period for a given drought contains drought recognition and selection of distribution function and so on, which relies on the determination of drought threshold. This paper proposed to use the maximum survey period of historical drought as a reference to determine the drought threshold, in other words, the resulting return period based on frequency analysis should not exceed the maximum survey period of historical drought. Besides, considering that the drought duration samples tend to concentrate on several values and lead to the platform-concentrated phenomenon of empirical points, the distribution function of run length was suggested to fit the drought duration samples. The monthly precipitation series of Minhe County in Qinghai province covering the period from 1932 to 2010 was used to demonstrate the proposed methods, where the Copula function was employed to build a bivariate joint distribution of drought duration and drought severity to compute the return period of drought event.
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