Risk assessment of agricultural drought in Heilonggang District
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Abstract:
Drought is the most severe agricultural meteorological disaster in Heilonggang District, assessment of drought risk during different growing stages of winter wheat may provide basis to determine rational irrigation schedule and to prevent and control drought. Based on the simulated soil water dynamics of 31 profiles for 1961-2005using the calibrated APSIM model, relative soil moisture drought indexes were calculated for different growth stages of winter wheat, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of agricultural drought of two scenarios, Farm Scenario (FS) and Optimized Scenario (OS) were analyzed. The results showed that, from the point of view of different growth stages of winter wheat, high-frequency drought occurred in sowing-overwintering stage and turning green-jointing stage for FS, with frequencies of 48.89% and 27.6% respectively, and in overwintering-turning green stage, turning green-jointing stage and grain filling-harvesting stage for OS, with drought frequencies of 51.61%, 39.78% and 62.22% respectively. High drought risk frequently occurred in central region and Xingtai, south part of Hengshui and north part of Handan. The time series of relative soil moisture drought index in the different growth stages of winter wheat showed the same change trend in the time series of relative soil moisture drought index of two scenarios. This study suggested that, in general, the relative soil moisture drought index was higher in FS than OS, but the OS, which based on ‘Wuqiao Mode’, brought the soil root zone reservoir into play enough, reduced the irrigation water and could use soil water with high efficiency. The total water amount of 61785 mm could be saved in OS compared to that in FS, if irrigation schedule of the OS was adopted in 31 profiles through the district in the period of 1961-2005. It showed that ‘Wuqiao Mode’ can be extended to application in Heilonggang District, and this mode may avoid drought risk in some degree, and can reach the goal of saving water and maintaining high yield.
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