Forecast of water resources supply-demand and sustainable utilization countermeasures in the Tuhai River Basin
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Abstract:
The Tuhai River is located in the south of the Haihe River Basin in Shandong Province and provides water resources for the development of the northern region of Shandong Province. The imbalance between supply and demand of water resources has become more prominent with the rapid development of the society. This paper selected 2010 as the status quo year, 2020 and 2030 as the forecast years. The water supply and demand in the Tuhai River Basin was forecasted according to the typical characteristics and the social and economic development planning, regardless of the east route of south-to-north water diversion project, and then the balance between supply and demand of water resources was analyzed. The results showed that when P=50%(normal year), P=75% (low flow year), the water deficit of the Tuhai River Basin was respectively 11.2×108 m3, 5.86×108 m3, the water deficient ratio was 19.66%,11.31% in 2020. When P=50%(normal flow year), P=75% (low flow year), the water deficit of the Tuhai River Basin was respectively 13.98×108 m3, 8.82×108 m3, the water deficient ratio was 3.20%,16.01% in 2030. The water resources in the Tuhai River Basin would not fully meet the requirements of production, life, ecological system in next 10-20 years, and some effective measures are required to ensure the sustainable utilization of water resources.
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