Parameter sensitivity analysis and calibration of the ice cover perdition model for the main canal of the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project
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Abstract:
Because of the low temperature in winter, different degree of ice cover will grow in the main canal of the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in the north of the Yellow River. The main canal would be operated in different manners such as ice-free, drifting ice and ice cover mode, and improper operation will lead to disasters like ice jam and ice dam. In order to anticipate the forming procedure of ice cover in main canals, a mathematical model was used in this paper to simulate the growth and decay of ice cover under different conditions by calculating the detailed heat exchange. According to the field observation data of ice cover in 2012, a set of parameters were calibrated with simulation result by minimizing the quadratic error with measured ice thickness. Then the sensitivity of six parameters in the ice prediction model was evaluated: reflection coefficient α, cloudiness C, virtual ice thickness Δh, wind speed Va, the reduction factor Cc and Ce, initial water temperature. The results showed that the reflection coefficient α, cloudiness C and virtual ice thickness Δh were more sensitive to the prediction of ice thickness. When the value of cloudiness was high, its sensitivity was extremely high. These results can be used to develop and calibrate the ice cover prediction model of canal system in clod region.
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