Quantitative analysis of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Upper Hanjiang River basin
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Abstract:
With the purpose of exploring the features of hydrological responses to climate change and human activities, a quantitative assessment of the relative contributions from climate variability and human activities to runoff changes in the Upper Hanjiang River basin was conducted using two methods, namely the elasticity method and the hydrological modeling method. The results showed that annual runoff underwent a significant decreasing trend over the period of 1961-2013, and a breaking point was detected in 1985. Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration both decreased gradually over the same period, but the trends were not significant. Climate variability accounted for 42.8%-43.5% of the decrease in runoff, and the impact of human activities accounted for 56.5%-57.2%, showing a more important influence on runoff changes. Moreover, the latter’s influence was in an increasing trend.
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