Quantitative assessment of runoff changes under the impact of human activities in the Jinjiang River basin
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Abstract:
In order to further explore the impact of human activities on the variation characteristics of runoffs, taking the Jinjiang River Basin in southeast coastal region of China as the study area, this paper studied the variation tendency, abrupt and periodic changes of the runoff, using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, Curve-Rank test, and wavelet analysis method, based on the monthly runoff and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010. The Slop Changing Ratio of Cumulative Quantity method (SCRCQ) was employed to quantitatively assess the contribution of climate change and human activities to the variations of the annual runoff and seasonal distribution characteristics at Shilong hydrological station. The results showed that, under the influences of the inter-basin water diversion project and Shanmei reservoir’s regulation, the increasing tendency of the annual runoff at Shilong station was more prominent than that at Anxi station, which was not influenced by the reservoir; and the monthly runoff variations at Shilong station were more gentle. There were significant periodic variations of the annual and inter-annual runoff series at the three scales of 6-7a, 11-12a and 20-21a. They were basically consistent with the annual and inter-annual precipitation in the basin. However, a slight discrepancy occurred between the periodic runoff variations at Shilong station and periodic precipitation variations in the basin after the 1980s. There was an abrupt change in 1982 in the annual runoff series at Shilong station, but not at Anxi station. During the period of variation, the human activities as mainly represented by Shanmei reservoir contributed to 67.17% of the annual runoff variation, 84.76% of the annual unevenness coefficient variation, and 71.16% of the concentration degree variation at Shilong hydrological station.
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